Have you ever wondered what makes a pitcher truly exceptional? It’s not just about raw talent or velocity—it’s the intricate dance of Stuff+ and Location+ that often separates the good from the great. As someone who’s spent years dissecting baseball analytics, I’ve always been fascinated by how these metrics predict performance. But here’s the kicker: they don’t always tell the full story. Let me take you on a journey through the latest Pitching+ gainers and decliners, where the numbers reveal as much about luck as they do about skill.
The Unlikely Heroes: Pitching+ Gainers
Aaron Civale tops the list, and frankly, I’m as surprised as anyone. His Stuff+ is barely above average, but his Location+ has skyrocketed. Here’s the catch: his SIERA and xERA suggest he’s due for a regression. What’s keeping him afloat? A staggering 90.3% LOB%. Personally, I think this is a classic case of unsustainable luck. If you’re riding his wave, now might be the time to jump ship.
Roki Sasaki is another head-scratcher. His Stuff+ jumped 11 points, but his strikeout rate remains underwhelming, and his walk rate is still in the double digits. Yet, he just delivered a career-best start with zero walks. Is this the beginning of a turnaround, or just a blip? What makes this particularly fascinating is how quickly narratives can shift in baseball. One thing that immediately stands out is how much we rely on small sample sizes to make big predictions.
Emerson Hancock is the breakout story of the year. His Pitching+ surged 16 points, driven by gains in both Stuff+ and Location+. But here’s the rub: his success is heavily reliant on his four-seamer and sinker, while the rest of his arsenal is underwhelming. In my opinion, breakouts fueled by location improvements are often less sustainable than those driven by better stuff. Still, he’s a mixed-league asset worth monitoring.
Cam Schlittler is the wild card here. His Stuff+ barely budged, but his Location+ jumped 10 points. What’s most intriguing is his elite SwStr% paired with a low CStr%, resulting in a merely good CSW%. His walk rate has plummeted from 10.2% to 4.9%, which raises a deeper question: where did this pinpoint control come from? From my perspective, he’s the most believable breakout on this list, but don’t expect a sub-2.00 ERA to stick.
The Fallen Stars: Pitching+ Decliners
Carlos Rodón is a cautionary tale. Returning from elbow surgery, his velocity and Stuff+ are intact, but his Location+ has cratered. What many people don’t realize is how long it can take for control to return post-injury. His struggles might just be beginning, and there’s no clear timeline for recovery.
Cole Ragans and Max Scherzer both saw their Location+ decline before hitting the IL. This isn’t just coincidence—it’s a pattern. Location+ often predicts injury risk, and these cases are Exhibit A. Scherzer, in particular, seems past his prime, with a Stuff+ of just 90. It’s a sad reality for a former ace.
Bailey Ober is the ultimate sell-high candidate. His Location+ is down, his Stuff+ is at a career low, and his fastball velocity is just 88.6 MPH. Yet, his ERA sits at 3.46, thanks to a low BABIP and HR/FB rate. If you take a step back and think about it, this is a classic case of luck masking underlying issues.
The Bigger Picture
What this really suggests is that Pitching+ is a powerful tool, but it’s not infallible. Luck, health, and pitch mix all play critical roles. A detail that I find especially interesting is how often we overvalue short-term gains or declines without considering the broader context. Baseball is a game of variance, and metrics like Pitching+ are just one piece of the puzzle.
In the end, the story of these pitchers isn’t just about numbers—it’s about potential, resilience, and the unpredictable nature of the game. As we watch these players rise and fall, remember: the metrics are a guide, not a guarantee. Personally, I think the most exciting part of baseball is the uncertainty, the constant reminder that even the best predictions can be upended by a single pitch.
